Over the past year, the air war in Ukraine has unfolded in five distinct phases, each characterized by unique tactics and strategies employed by both sides. Throughout these phases, Russia has sought to establish air superiority while Ukraine has focused on defending its airspace and countering Russian advances.
In the initial phase, Russia aimed to cripple Ukraine’s air defenses and establish dominance in the skies. Utilizing a combination of cruise missiles and air strikes, Russia targeted Ukrainian radar installations and air bases. Despite these efforts, Ukraine’s Air Force remained operational, conducting combat air patrols and intercepting Russian aircraft.
Phase two witnessed a shift in Russian tactics as they transitioned to standoff cruise missile attacks and increased bombing of Ukrainian cities. Ukraine’s air defenses improved, posing a greater threat to Russian aircraft and forcing them to operate at lower altitudes. Meanwhile, the use of drones and loitering munitions by both sides became increasingly prevalent.
As fighting shifted to the eastern and southern regions in phase three, Russia concentrated on electronic warfare to disrupt Ukrainian air operations and employed long-range air defenses to restrict airspace access. The use of drones escalated, with Russia deploying kamikaze drones to target Ukrainian cities and infrastructure. Ukraine received an influx of NATO-supplied air defense systems, bolstering its ability to counter Russian airstrikes.
Phase four marked a period of intense fighting around Kharkiv and Bakhmut, with Russia focusing on denying airspace over its occupied territories. Ukraine’s Air Force adapted, adopting Western weapon systems like the AGM-88 HARM missile to neutralize Russian air defenses. Shahed suicide drones became a persistent threat, prompting Ukraine to prioritize counter-UAV measures and seek additional air defense support from its Western allies.
The ongoing phase, which began in early 2023, has seen fighting continue amid frozen and muddy conditions. Fixed-wing and rotary-wing aircraft continue to fly low-level missions, while drones remain heavily utilized. Ukraine’s Western-supplied air defense systems, such as NASAMS and IRIS-T SLM, have proven effective in intercepting Russian missiles and drones. Despite a year of intense aerial conflict, the air war in Ukraine remains a stalemate, with both sides seeking to gain an advantage while adapting to evolving tactics and technologies.