I’ve been saying this to clients lately: the market feels investable again.
Not easy. Not risk-free. Not cheap in every corner. But investable.
After the last couple of years, that’s a meaningful change.
What stands out to me heading into 2026 is that buyer demand looks real, not manufactured. Usually this time of year, things slow right down. Instead, I’m seeing serious buyers stay active, old clients come back into the market, and more people willing to move if the numbers work.
And that’s the key difference now: the numbers are starting to work again.
For a while, a lot of deals were dead on arrival. Cap rates were too low relative to borrowing costs, so even if you liked the asset, you were underwriting a loser from day one. I don’t care how nice the brochure looks — if debt costs more than the yield and there’s no clear path to fix it, that’s not an investment thesis.
Now we’re seeing something healthier. Cap rates have moved out, pricing has adjusted, and interest rates are no longer completely disconnected from deal fundamentals. That doesn’t mean every listing is suddenly a home run. Far from it. There are still plenty of overpriced properties sitting around, and there always will be. But compared to where we were, I’m seeing more deals that actually make sense on paper.
That matters.
I also think a lot of sophisticated buyers spent 2024 and 2025 doing what experienced investors should do in a shaky market: watching, waiting, and protecting capital. Prices were drifting, rents were softening in some segments, and nobody wanted to be early just for the sake of being early.
Now? It looks a lot more like stabilization.
Prices seem closer to fair value.
Rents look more stable, especially on quality product.
Sellers, for the most part, are more realistic than they were a year ago.
That’s usually when the better investors start leaning in.
Do I think we’re in for some massive rip-your-face-off growth year? No. I’m skeptical of that kind of talk, especially after living through two downturns. Markets don’t heal on social media timelines. They take time. My base case for 2026 is more boring than that: more stability, more rational pricing, more transaction volume, and better opportunities for investors who can underwrite properly and hold through the cycle.
To me, that’s good news.
On asset classes, I’m still most comfortable with multifamily and mixed-use if the basis is right. Multifamily continues to have a built-in hedge simply because housing demand doesn’t disappear. I also like well-located retail more than a lot of people expected I would. Everyday-needs retail has held up because it serves real neighborhoods and real habits. Grocery, medical, service uses, food spots people actually visit — that stuff still matters.
Mixed-use remains one of the more overlooked plays, in my view. A good commercial tenant on the main floor with residential above can be a very nice blend when it’s structured properly. In my experience, commercial tenants are often less scary than people think and residential can be more management-heavy than they expect.
Industrial is the one I’d watch more cautiously. That sector ran hard, and in many markets it overshot. If logistics users start pulling back or trade uncertainty picks up, I wouldn’t be surprised to see more pressure there.
Development is still tough. I don’t see condo product suddenly roaring back just because the calendar changed. If anything, I expect more developers to keep pivoting toward purpose-built rental where feasible. Low-rise may fare better than high-rise condo, but overall I think development still has a harder road in 2026 than stabilized income property.
Office? I’d separate suburban from downtown. Downtown office still has real structural issues in a lot of places. Suburban office is more nuanced. There are situations where it works, especially if companies continue decentralizing footprints. But I’m still very selective there.
One thing I do think picks up this year is off-market activity.
When markets are messy, sellers and agents often default to throwing things on-market and letting the market figure out pricing. When pricing starts to normalize, confidence comes back, and with that you usually see more direct conversations, more targeted outreach, and more deals happening before they ever hit the broader market.
That’s often where the better opportunities live.
My read on 2026 is pretty simple: I don’t think we’re near the top, and I do think we’re a lot closer to the bottom than we were. Could something external change that? Of course. There’s always policy risk, geopolitical risk, rate risk, and good old-fashioned recession risk. Anyone telling you otherwise hasn’t been around long enough.
But if you’re a long-term investor focused on quality assets, reasonable leverage, and real cash flow, this is the kind of market where I’d rather be buying than waiting for perfect clarity.
Perfect clarity usually shows up after the opportunity is gone.
If you’re looking at deals this year, my advice is the same as always: ignore the hype, underwrite hard, and don’t confuse activity with value. There will be winners in 2026, but they’ll go to the investors who stay disciplined.