In his book “Stubborn Attachments,” Tyler Cowen posits that we have a moral imperative to maximize GDP growth, provided it doesn’t violate human rights, exacerbate climate change, or increase the risk of nuclear war. His argument hinges on the idea that individuals in the future have an equal claim to well-being as those living today.
Cowen draws parallels to your argument in “Famine, Affluence, and Morality,” which maintains that the distance between individuals should not diminish our obligations towards them. Just as we extend our moral sphere beyond geographical boundaries, Cowen argues that it should also encompass time, extending our considerations to future generations.
He contends that even a seemingly insignificant increase in GDP growth can have a profound impact over the course of a century, leading to a far more prosperous future. Therefore, prioritizing GDP growth may entail sacrificing immediate welfare programs that could potentially reduce inequality but hinder long-term economic progress.
This argument raises questions about the relationship between GDP growth and well-being. While economic growth can undoubtedly improve material conditions, it’s unclear whether it unequivocally translates to greater happiness or fulfillment. Cowen acknowledges that extremely poor individuals may benefit more from direct welfare assistance than from abstract future gains.
Additionally, the assumption that future generations will value wealth as much as we do is open to debate. It’s possible that their priorities and conceptions of well-being may differ significantly from our own. Weighing the immediate needs of the present against the potential benefits of the future requires careful consideration of these uncertainties.
Cowen’s argument also underscores the importance of scrutinizing assumptions and potential trade-offs. While prioritizing GDP growth may seem like a noble goal, it’s crucial to ensure that it doesn’t come at the expense of harming real people in the present. History is replete with examples of long-term plans that have gone awry, highlighting the need for caution and humility in shaping the future.