Every year, I have clients who ask me the same question in late September: “October is a new fiscal year, so does the backlog reset?”
The short answer is no.
October 1 does bring a fresh allocation of employment-based immigrant visa numbers. But that does not wipe out existing demand, erase per-country limits, or magically move priority dates forward for everyone. For many applicants—especially those born in India and China—the backlog remains very real in both EB-1 and EB-2.
That is why I keep telling people this: a new Visa Bulletin is not a new strategy.
What changes in October is supply. What does not automatically change is the line you are standing in.
Some categories may advance. Some may stay where they are. Some may even retrogress. I have handled enough cases to know that relying on hopeful assumptions is one of the fastest ways to lose time in a process where time already feels expensive.
What is in your control is preparation.
If you are pursuing EB-1A, EB-2 NIW, or O-1A, this is the part that matters most right now: the quality of the filing you submit at the start matters more than ever.
For EB-1A, I’m seeing too many people focus only on checking off three criteria and assuming that is enough. It is not. EB-1A still requires a convincing final merits presentation. The case has to show sustained acclaim and that the applicant is among the small percentage at the top of the field. Good evidence rules have become more flexible in some respects, yes—but officers are also under no obligation to give you an RFE before denying a weak case. That changes the risk calculation significantly.
For EB-2 NIW, the same principle applies, and the analysis is even more structured. It is not enough to say your work is important or innovative. I tell clients all the time: general importance is not the same as national importance. USCIS wants a clearly defined proposed endeavor, a strong explanation of its substantial merit and national importance, evidence that you are well positioned to advance it, and a persuasive reason why waiving the labor certification and job offer requirement would benefit the United States. Vague narratives and recycled language tend to fall apart quickly under scrutiny.
For O-1A, I continue to see it as an excellent option, especially for founders, scientists, engineers, and emerging technology professionals. In many cases, it can be part of a broader long-term strategy that also includes EB-1A or NIW. But O-1A is not just about proving talent in the abstract. The petition must connect your extraordinary ability evidence to the actual U.S. work, the petitioner structure, and the way the employment or agent relationship is presented. For founders in particular, these details matter.
I also think people need to pay attention to the practical shifts in adjudication.
Shorter response windows and the possibility of a denial without an RFE mean there is less room to “fix it later.” That used to be the mindset in too many filings. It is a dangerous mindset now.
In my practice, the cases that perform best are usually the ones built with:
- a coherent legal theory,
- strong documentary evidence,
- specific and credible recommendation letters,
- clean internal consistency, and
- no generic template language.
The cases that struggle are often not the cases with “bad facts.” They are the cases with underdeveloped presentation. I have seen highly qualified people weaken their own petitions by using broad claims, generic letters, or evidence that is not properly tied to the legal standard.
Cost planning also deserves attention. Government fees continue to shift, premium processing is more expensive than it used to be, and for certain nonimmigrant paths like O-1 visa stamping abroad, additional fee considerations can affect timing and budgeting. That does not mean these categories are less valuable. It means immigration planning needs to be treated like what it is: a legal strategy, not a last-minute filing exercise.
If you are waiting for October to tell you what to do, my advice is simple: don’t wait passively.
Use this period to confirm your priority date, assess whether EB-1A, EB-2 NIW, or O-1A is the best fit, prepare supporting documents, and identify weaknesses before USCIS does. The Visa Bulletin will do what it does. Your case preparation is the part you can actually control.
And in a high-stakes system like this, that control matters.
General informational post only, not legal advice. Immigration law, filing fees, adjudication trends, and Visa Bulletin movement can change, and every case depends on its own facts.