A stat like “60% more homes for sale” gets attention fast, and I understand why. A lot of people hear that and immediately assume prices must be falling next.
But that’s not what I’m seeing in Rochester right now.
The resale market has clearly loosened up compared to a year ago. Inventory went from 252 homes in August 2025 to 404 in August 2026, which is a meaningful jump. Buyers have more options, more room to compare, and in some cases more negotiating leverage than they’ve had in a while.
At the same time, prices really haven’t broken down. The median sale price moved from $334,000 to $340,000, and the 12-month rolling median appreciation is sitting around 1.7%.
That’s not strong appreciation. I wouldn’t call it exciting. But I also wouldn’t call it a correction.
To me, this looks a lot more like a market that’s normalizing than one that’s unraveling.
A few things can be true at once:
- inventory can be up sharply
- homes can take longer to sell
- closed sales can soften
- and prices can still hold relatively steady
That’s basically where Rochester is right now.
Homes are taking longer to move, with median days on market rising from 18 to 24 days. New listings were also up 22%, while closed sales were down about 8%. That tells me the market is still functioning, but it’s absorbing supply more slowly.
And that’s the key point.
More inventory only puts real downward pressure on prices when supply starts to overwhelm demand for a sustained period. We’re not fully there. Overall months of supply is about 3.1, and by the usual definition, a balanced market is closer to 6 months.
So yes, buyers have more leverage than they did in the frenzy years. But no, Rochester as a whole hasn’t flipped into a true buyer’s market.
What I think matters most right now is that this market is getting more segmented by price point.
Under $500K, supply is still fairly tight:
- under $300K: 2.8 months
- $300K–$399K: 2.8 months
- $400K–$499K: 2.6 months
That’s still seller-leaning.
But once you move up the ladder, conditions loosen up:
- $500K–$749K: 4.5 months
- $750K+: 3.9 months
That’s where buyers start to gain more breathing room, especially in the $500K to $750K range.
This is why broad market headlines can be misleading. If you’re shopping under $400K, your experience may still feel pretty competitive. If you’re buying above $500K, the conversation changes. More choices, less urgency, and more room to negotiate.
For sellers, I’d take this as a cue—not a panic signal.
The median sale-to-original-list-price ratio was still 100% in August. That tells me properly priced homes are still getting the job done. But the margin for error is smaller now. In a market with more competition, you can’t count on sloppy pricing, mediocre presentation, or deferred maintenance getting a pass.
I’ve been through enough cycles to know that markets usually don’t break all at once. First you see more listings. Then homes sit a little longer. Then buyers get pickier. Then pricing becomes much more sensitive. Rochester feels like it’s in that middle transition stage right now.
So my read is pretty simple:
Prices are flattening, not collapsing.
Inventory is elevated, but it stopped climbing month over month.
Buyers have more leverage, especially at higher price points.
And sellers can still win, but only if they’re realistic.
The number I’d be watching next is months of supply. If that keeps climbing, we’ll likely see more pressure build. If inventory starts getting absorbed, this may just be a healthier reset after an overheated stretch.
That’s a much different story than “60% more homes means prices are falling.”
In Rochester, at least for now, that’s not the full picture.